Compare and contrast Oedipus Rex Essay

Compare and contrast Oedipus Rex and Faustus as tragedies.  The two plays Oedipus Rex and Faustus are both tragic  plays. Both of the plays end with the main character losing their  life, and actually even their afterlife. But as tragedies the two  plays have some similarities and some differences. The characters  themselves are different, and they both want different goals out of  each their own lives. Oedipus Rex and Faustus are two tragedies that  compare and contrast in many ways. The two main characters of the plays Faustus and Oedipus  Rex are very different from each other. Faustus, the main character in  Faustus, is not trying to save any civilizations like Oedipus is.  Faustus is really trying to make himself a better person by learning  black magic. He wants to learn evil to make himself more powerful as  a person. He signs his soul over to the devil in exchange for  twenty-four years of service by Mephistophilis. Greed is the main  reason for the fall of Faustus. He chose his own destiny; he knew  that when he signed that contract his soul belonged to the devil. Oedipus on the other hand, did not really have much of a choice in his  fate. He was pretty much damned from the beginning. He was  prophesized to kill his father and marry his mother, so his father and  mother tried to change fate. But as the story goes, the prophecy came  true. All Oedipus wanted to do was stop the plague from going through  his city. But it ended up that he was the cause, not the solution.  His eternity was not lived out in hell, but spent exiled from Thebes. Oedipus did not choose his fate as Faustus did. The characters of the  two plays both suffered in the end, but one chose his and one had to  live with his prophecy.  Smith 2  The plots of the two plays are different from each other also. The  plot of Oedipus Rex is for Oedipus to find out why the plague has  struck his town, and how to get rid of it. But the plot ends up  turning into what was prophesized to his parents a long time ago.  Oedipus ends up finding out that he has married his mother and that he  has killed his father. The whole play is a tragedy. There is no  comic relief in it, as in Faustus with his practical jokes. In  Oedipus the plot revolves around the fate of one man. In Faustus the  plot revolves around other people as well. There are other subplots  in the play not just the plot with Faustus. Faustus and  Mephistophilis go about causing trouble throughout different cities,  really trying to cause evil wherever they go. In Oedipus, there is no  other trouble in the play, just the problem with Oedipus killing his  father and marrying his mother. The plots have nothing in common  except how the end. In the end of Faustus, Faustus must spend all of  eternity in hell. His soul now belongs to the devil. In the beginning of the play he did not believe in life after death, I bet he  is hitting himself on the head now. In the end of Oedipus Rex,  Oedipus cuts his own eyes out and gets exiled out of Thebes. He  spends the rest of his life with out a home. The ultimate tragedy  really, he just got stuck in the wrong place at the wrong time. Both of the plays are different from each other, but both  end tragically. One of the similarities of the play is seen at the  end of Oedipus Rex when the Chargos basically says that even the  greatest of men can crumble to ruins; all humans are subject to  suffering and pain. This theme is true in both plays. Seen at the end  of Faustus, when Faustus was trying to stop the clock. Even the  greatest of men can crumble to ruins.

Marooned in Iraq Essay

Marooned in Iraq is a film by Bahman Ghobadi set on the border of Iran and Iraq. Wherein people who lives in Kurdistan experiences a precarious life. The Kurds experiences how it feels to live in a cold, sleazy camp for refugees near Iran’s border. The cruelty of Saddam Hussein was greatly felt by the loved ones who remained alive. They were the ones who are left facing the daily deluge brought about by Iraq’s bomber jets that are streaking across the sky. However this film is made   more meaningful by Ghobadi by having a mixture of laughter and tears. This made the film more appealing to the viewers and more enjoyable to watch.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   The movie revolves on the life of a Kurdish family who are musically inclined. It is lead by the elder Kurdish whose name is Mirza who is in quest for the woman who was gone them two decades before. He was left by his wife and goes with another man to another place. Mirza then decided to take courage and travel beyond the borders of Iran together with his two sons Barat and Audeh.   They experienced great squabbling among themselves but their interaction is really humorous. The humor added to lessen the tension of the scenes makes up a light and enjoyed viewers. Some example of this is when they are caught in a troubled situation like when their motorcycles are stolen by some bandits.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   There are metaphorical and symbolisms used by Ghobadi on the film Marooned in Iraq. He carefully unveils the situation of the Kurdish people under the regime of Saddam Hussein. The film was set during 189 and 1991 where Kurdish are in great depression under Hussein. Many lives were killed and families whoa re left behind greatly suffered. The Iranian revolution is the time when Barat was left by his wife. In the film there is no clear image given about the Kurdish wife. This implies how women during that revolution have been robbed of their humanity. Women singers like Hannareh (Mirza’s wife) are silenced and are not capable of speaking of themselves. The title itself of thefilm symbolizes how the Kurdish people were isolated during that time. Chaotic, traumatic and harsh experienced under the claws of Hussein. On the other hand, there are some exemptions on being Marooned in Iraq this is because some of the characters in the film do find their ways. A ray of hope is still visible in the film which gives the Kurdish people a situation where they can think and do ways to reach lberty.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   As the pursuit of Mirza and his two sons Barat and Audeh continues for Hannareh, they came to learn and understand more the life of being a Kurdish. Through this characters Ghobadi tries to expose the situation during that time. The three lead characters witnessed the frightful devastation received by Iraq from both U.S bombs and Saddam Hussein’s bloody troops. To lighten up the situation Ghobadi uses an approach of adding up humor and beauty along the journey of the three characters. This made the viewers understand more about Kurdish identities. How strength and determination allows the characters to stand amidst the adversities in their way.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Ghobadi made the film to make a distinction about the Kurdish people. The diversity of the characters in dealing with the situation and how the essence of family floats amidst conflicts and depression. Mirza portaryed his father image by commanding his two sons to go with him for his search of his wife.   Barat shows willingness to cooperate with his father but but Audeh made some complaints because of leaving behind his 7 wives and 11 daughters. This shows the lifestyle of some Kurdish male who settles for many families. But sooner in the film Audeh decided to go withhis father and brother because it is an opportunity for him to find another wife who will bear him a son. This depicts the fact how Kurdish values having a male born offspring in their families. The director used the idea of making the characters in the film portray being musicians to lighten the atmosphere in exposing the situation of the country in that time. While the three are set to travel and does performances along the way, they came across victims of chemical warfare. They also experienced being abducted by thieves who buried them alive upto their necks as their motorcycle and warm clothes are stolen. Some practices were also exposed by the director in the film like the scene when the lead characters came to attend an Iranian wedding. Later on the two sons finds their solace when Barat met a woman he constantly sees in the film but this grieving woman is always being stopped by the police and forced to do some military services. Audeh on the other hand no longer finds his supposedly 8th wife but he was able to find some orphans who will make nice sons. Mirza was also able to find his own surprise and his two sons made their happy return to their home.   Ã‚   The film is set in a rhythmic and dramatic mode that made it more interesting. This is a story of reality with some moments of humor to break the harsh reality being experienced that time. Although villages have been scourged by Saddam Hussein during his reign of terror, the people are resilient enough to find their ways of surviving.

Executive Summary Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 11

Executive Summary - Essay Example SAP Business One is a fully integrated business management solution that boosts functionality across all departments. First, ProCons is a master value-added reseller of business solutions across the MENA region, which reinforces Al Jassim Group reputation. It is a global partner and a world leader in IT solutions with offices in Beirut, Dubai, KSA, Qatar, and Kuwait. ProCons consists of a team of experienced multi-lingual consultants that can swiftly implement the solution. Secondly, Karani Mohamed Farooq, group finance manager states that the group has been using an accounting system for years and that the upgrade of the powerful tool will support the group’s organic growth. In addition, the new system will support across boarder business as planned by the group. Thirdly, although the group had many options to choose from, they chose ProCons SAP Business One model because it promised data reliability, integrity, scalability, dependency, user friendliness, and back up support. I would evaluate my system and establish if it will enable the company to compete effectively with the beefed up competition form my competitors. I would establish specific areas that have a problem and compare different systems that can suit this area. This evaluation will also enable the company to determine if there is need for a complete change of the entire system or just part of the system. Consultations with an IT expert can help analyse the current position of the company’s competitive edge and the need for a new system. Later, the company will need to examine its current financial status to establish if it can afford a new system if there is need for one. If I were in charge of this change, I would make sure that the company is not just getting a reliable system but one with the customer in mind. That is, a survey needed to precede this implementation to accommodate most royal customer’s views. This may include a system that will allow them to make a saving for their

Product, Pricing, Channel, Promotional Strategies Essay

Product, Pricing, Channel, Promotional Strategies - Essay Example Considering the expenditure effect, consumers tend to choose alternative options if they feel the price is high and unaffordable.   Soft drinks are usually priced on similar lines, unlike healthcare products. Consumers unwilling to spend more money on healthcare products, which are occasional requirements and are often unplanned in their expenditure, tend to consider price before choosing the product. Considering the shared-cost effect, consumers look for external financial help to buy specific product, especially health care product, through insurance and other means.   When they can aid their health care expenses through insurance, they do not feel the pressure of high pricing. The Price-Quality effect plays a major role in choosing specific pharmaceutical products as it is associated with their psychology.   If consumers had earlier had good experience with certain medicines, then fluctuating or increased price will not be a deciding factor in purchasing the same product onc e again. Unique value effect that consumers experience with some treatments or medicines make the consumers less sensitive to products price because the differentiating value of the products become more important.   Most consumers prefer their health and well being to price or expenditure, when in grave need for betterment of health. Channels of different lengths and intensities may be used to reach maximum consumers and obtain large market share.   For instance, intensive channels are formed by including all possible intermediaries like agents, wholesalers, retailers, distributors etc. Whereas, exclusive channels are formed by including only one intermediary.   Intensive channels are best suitable for marketing convenience products such as soft drinks, groceries etc.   Few selective channels are used, such as only wholesalers or distributors, when reaching out to multiple retail outlets for products that consumers pay more attention before buying. Consumers tend to search f or information before buying these products.   Sales of such products are lesser than convenience products, hence including lesser intermediaries would be the best option for such products. Exclusive channels are used to market products that are highly priced; such channels are restricted to exclusive retailer in the market. Specialty products that are expensive and infrequently purchased are limited to exclusive retailers or show-rooms, and are provided sufficient after sales support.   For example, specific automobiles are available only through exclusive retailers. Unsought products are usually marketed by the company or through single channels such as contracted marketers.   These products are relatively new and are unknown to the consumers.   Hence, the company takes the responsibility of bringing the product into the market before trusting it to third-party channels.

Ophthalmic Care Delivery in Saudi Arabia Assignment - 70

Ophthalmic Care Delivery in Saudi Arabia - Assignment Example   Statistics indicate that this institution has considerably decreased the prevalence of blindness and other eye-related health problems, in the elderly, by over 10 percent in the past few decades (Alwadani et al. 2010). However, it has been noted that there are certain regions and communities with relative surpluses in the delivery of quality ophthalmic care and short put of ophthalmologists and ophthalmic subspecialists. These researchers employed written survey to collect data from ophthalmology residence. The written survey contained questions on medical education, demographic information, residency training, and career goals that affect their career choice (Alwadani et al. 2010). The results of this study indicated that the majority of ophthalmology respondents preferred practicing in urban settings (63%) such as Jeddah, Makkah, Riyadh, and Eastern area to rural settings (37%) such as Jizan, Hail, Asir, Madinah, Qassim and Baha (Alwadani et al. 2010). Additionally, 75% and 77% of the respondents were interested in practicing interactive research and surgery respectively (Alwadani et al. 2010). Research results summarize that most respondents are willing to practice in private sectors rather than public institutions. In this context, these authors recommend that the government should make an effort to encourage adoption of the ophthalmic practice in public institutions other than in the private sec tor (Alwadani, 2010). Additionally, training in sidelined ophthalmic subspecialties should be encouraged to ensure optimum ophthalmic care delivery to all Saudi Arabia citizens (Alwadani et al. 2010).

Business and Marketing strategy (case Study) Essay

Business and Marketing strategy (case Study) - Essay Example Beverage industry is one of the most dynamic industries that are applying this concept to great effect (Boone et al. 2009, p. 194). Beverage industry is broadly classified as alcoholic and non alcoholic. In both categories there are exemplifications of global marketing. World’s non alcoholic industry is grappled with tough competition by the two large players Coca Cola and PepsiCo. Both the giants are expanding their value horizon across different countries. Though there are numerous companies engaged in providing global beverages, the two giants are at top with extensive portfolio of products tailor made for countries. Though both companies are equally successful, Coca Cola leads the global market, with PepsiCo being on its tail continuously (Cardello 2011). Provide a detailed assessment of the environmental issues affecting Coca Cola global business and marketing strategy. Given guidance in terms of opportunities or threats they may pose for the company in the future. Coca C ola Company is one of the leading companies in the world that is dealing in the manufacturing and distribution of non-carbonated beverages. The brand portfolio of the company entails more than 400 brands including beverages, juices, tea, sports and energy drinks, coffees etc. Strong brand name and brand portfolio has led the company ahead of its close competitors, Pepsi which has a brand value of $12,690 million as compared to $67000 million of Coca Cola (The Coca Cola Company 2011). Since its inception, it has continuously improved upon its marketing strategy that has facilitated the customer recall and recognition of brand overall the world making it easy for Coca Cola to explore new markets. The international marketing strategy of the company can also be quoted as the major reason behind its huge success. However, intense competition and threats are ever-present elements of the external environment that might have a large impact on the company’s profitability. SWOT ANALYSI S SWOT analysis can provide a snapshot of the current performance of the company and of the dark areas that are required to be eradicated so as to avail the new opportunities that can further enhance the company’s performance. SWOT analysis is the best way to study the impact of external environment on the organization’s marketing and global strategy (Mind Tools Ltd. 2011). STRENGTHS: Leading Brand: This is a recognizable fact that Coca Cola has a strong brand name and brand value that is incomparable. From the last few years, company has invested a lot on the promotions that has enhanced the brand’s customer recall and recognition as well. Large scale of operations: Coca Cola is known as the largest manufacturer, marketer and distributor of non alcoholic beverages in the world having a large scale of operations. Currently, Coca Cola is successfully operating in more than 200 countries due to having a support of the strong infrastructure across the world. WEAKNE SSES Negative perception of coke: It is a known fact that a recognizable product â€Å"coke† can be harmful for a body. Therefore, this shift of trend towards weight reduction and health can adversely affect the company’s profitability in the future. Lack of popularity of many Coca Cola’s brands: Furthermore, many of Coca Cola’

Microbiology Laboratory Questions Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Microbiology Laboratory Questions - Essay Example It ferments inulin and produces virulence in mice. While viridans streptococci are optochin resistant, bile insoluble and non-capsulated. They do not ferment inulin and do not produce virulence in mice. (Ross, 1999. p 276) Answer 4. The Quellung reaction was first described by Neufeld (1902). The word â€Å"Quellung† means swelling in German. The polysaccharide antigen in the bacterial capsules reacts with the specific antibody produced in sensitized laboratory animals. This reaction causes the capsule to enlarge and become opaque. This can then be observed microscopically. Several bacterial species namely, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, Haemophilus influenzae, Salmonella and Group B Streptococci show a positive test for this reaction. (Fischer et al.) Answer 5. The bacterial capsule plays a vital role in virulence and pathogenesis. It protects the bacterium against the host immune processes like phagocytosis. Also, the capsule provides sites for cellular attachment to the host (Hammerschmidt, 2005). Answer 6. Streptococci grow best on nutrient agar enriched with 5-10% blood, heated blood or serum. The optimum temperature for growth is 37oC though growth can occur between the temperature range of 22-42oC. S. pneumoniae grows optimally in air or hydrogen with 5-10% CO2. Incubation period is 24 hours (Ross, 1999. p 264) Answer7. Blood agar may be defined both as an enriched and differential medium used for culture of fastidious organisms. A differential medium enables to distinguish one microorganism from another based on the growth properties on the same medium. Blood agar differentiates microorganisms based on their hemolytic properties. Hemolysis is of three types alpha or partial, beta or complete and gamma or no hemolysis. A good example of use of blood agar as a differential medium is seen in grouping Streptococci. S. pneumoniae and viridans streptococci are alpha hemolytic, Group A S.

Degrees of Homicide Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Degrees of Homicide - Assignment Example dad saw the kidnapper the next day in an interview and in sudden rage, the dad grabbed a revolver from a nearby officer and killed the kidnapper (â€Å"Manslaughter†). Another example is when Dan comes home to find his wife in bed with Victor. In the heat of the moment, Dan picks up a golf club from next to the bed and strikes Victor in the head, killing him instantly (â€Å"Manslaughter: Voluntary†). Involuntary manslaughter involves the death of a human being, but without the intent required for murder, comprising elements such as (1) the killing of another human being was unintentional; (2) the death occurred either during the commission of an unlawful act not amounting to a felony or as the result of criminal negligence; and (3) the defendant’s unlawful act or negligence caused the death (Wallace 8). For instance: two kids were street-racing, one lost control and hit a crowd of spectators. Two of the spectators were killed. The one who lost control was charged with involuntary manslaughter (â€Å"Manslaughter†). Another picture is when a driver is running a red light and then crashing into another car, which kills the other driver (â€Å"When†). Negligent manslaughter is a new type of homicide that the Model Penal Code developed in response to the fact that the voluntary and involuntary manslaughter are difficult to apply in certain situations. It is the unintentional killing of another human being caused by the negligence of the defendant including elements that (1) the killing of another human being was unintentional; (2) the death resulted from a negligent act by the defendant; and (3) the defendant’s negligence caused the death (Wallace 8). A case of negligent manslaughter is: D, an anaesthetist, failed to observe during an eye operation that the tube inserted in V’s mouth had become detached from the ventilator, causing V to suffer a cardiac arrest and eventually die (â€Å"Cases†). A different circumstance is when D pointed a gun at V, without

COMAIR Regional Airlines Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

COMAIR Regional Airlines - Case Study Example The regional airline COMAIR, a subsidiary of Delta Air Lines, which serves routes in the United States, Canada and Europe is poised to become very competitive and profitable in 2010. COMAIR currently has 5,800 dedicated aviation professionals and services 511 daily flights to about 77 international and domestic destinations. The COMAIR is the preferred airline of choice by most business travellers and frequent travellers as it offers affordable airfares. COMAIR has gone from strength to strength by rapidly rolling out international routes and additional services for the customers. Another important cost factor for regional airlines is the national and local taxes imposed by the US government. Most countries treat airlines like cash cows by levying national prerogatives and taxes on them that results in higher costs of doing business. Another positive trend is that inspite of the US recession, the regional airlines do offer the safest form of transportation. Although US airlines carry 3.5 million passengers annually, the accident rate is very low compared to the accident rates of motor vehicles and maritime vessels. Another interesting and positive development is that air travel has improved its safety record over time. New US airline jets have more safeguards and safety measures which help minimize untoward accidents on air and on the ground. Among the interesting market players in the US airlines industry is COMAIR. For instance, COMAIR has been effective in four general areas of operations: 1) winning customers; 2) maintaining its fleet in excellent condition; 3) close relations with its pool of human resources, 4) keeping its finances viable. In general, COMAIR's is able to grow its equity over time (McCabe, 1998)COMAIR has increased international capacity by 15 percent in 2008 to address increasing demand. (International Herald Tribune, June 4, 2008) The company has consistently upgraded its fleet on a yearly basis. As regards its salary expenses, Comair's flight attendants have approved a US$7.9 million dollars in wage cuts intended to help the company recover from its financial difficulties. Fourth, COMAIR has been able to manage its finances well. The company has managed to keep unit revenues up and unit costs down. The airlines fly all their available seats, hence, the company managers try to increase their unit revenues on a quarterly basis. The COMAIR managers understand that most of the airline's costs are fixed. Approximately ten percent of costs go to services such as airport fees and air navigation services fees. Labor costs take up an average of 38 percent in the United States. Hence, the COMAIR managers have focused on decreasing the unit cost to bring down operations cost.In addition, the managers continue to manage near-term liquidity pressures. Cash collateral posting requirements had a material impact on its unrestricted cash positions since 2008. Delta Air Lines, stated on Dec. 2, 2008 that its projected cash collateral posting requirement at Dec. 31, 2008 would be approximately US $1.1 billion dollars.In response to the situation of the parent company, C OMAIR is focused on improvements in free cash flow as the key to liquidity preservation. In addition, the company has scaled-back aircraft financing commitments and has

Profit And Loss As Index Of Company Success Assignment - 12

Profit And Loss As Index Of Company Success - Assignment Example The business had total expenditure of $20,756 which includes non-cash expenses of $175 for depreciation on equipment. Although depreciation does not involve the movement of funds it represents a charge for the use of the asset. This charge should not be deducted for income tax purposes. However, the charge is reflective of the use of the asset in the company. The charge was calculated for two months based on a 5-year straight-line method of depreciation. It is expected that the useful life of equipment which includes a computer, fax machine and a copy straight-line longer than 5 years. The Internal Revenue Service (2012) indicates that businesses must prorate depreciation deduction based on the months in use. The items of equipment were in use for 2 months and so the charge in the accounts is based on this fact. Other expenses of note include bad debt expense which includes write-offs as well as provisions made for debts that may not be collected. The two bills representing a total o f approximately $11,000 and due from Delta Company is not collectible since the company is bankrupt. A total of 25% of the debt of $8000 (that is $2,000) due from Baker Company for consultancy fees and $763.86 for reimbursable are also not considered to be recoverable based on previous experience with the client. Additionally, $432.78 for costs may not be recovered from Charlie Company. These amounts have been included as a provision for doubtful debts and included in Bad debt expense. The total amount of bad and doubtful debts expensed represents 40 per cent of income. The company made a net profit of $15,686 which represents 41 per cent of total income. Depreciation of $175 will be added back to the net profit figure. Income tax has not been accounted for since the proprietor’s will include this profit when filing his personal income tax returns. This will be filed on the appropriate form for business proprietors.

Social Work Essay Example for Free

Social Work Essay A career in social work gets people involved the community and the world. Social work is a profession that helps to improve problems faced in society in order to make it better and more civilized. Going into this project I knew all of the common and most basic information about social work. But, as I began to research more on the profession if social work, I learned more than I actually thought I knew. Social work is a great profession that involves people helping people and improving the lives of people all over the world. Making a difference in another person’s life was a huge attraction from social work to me. I have always been the type of person who has a genuine love for helping others. I get great joy out of it and it makes me feel rewarding. I truly believed that my love for helping others was my life’s purpose. The only difficulty I had was figuring out the right career that would allow me to fulfill my purpose. As freshman in high school is where I began my search for the perfect career. I took the time out for two summer’s straight and attended something similar to job shadowing with family members who currently held profession that involved helping people. This is when I was introduced to the field of social work. Even though there were other career fields that would fit my purpose, social work was the only career I felt was just right for me. I felt that social work was the right field for because it fitted my personality perfectly and not only did I want to help people hands on, I also wanted to be able to go outside of my office and help as well. Social work was the field that would allow me to do so. The profession itself is not as stressful compared to the medical professions. Social work professions involve face-to-face communication that is not as intense as other face-to-face conditions. While looking further in to the career that am attempting to pursue, I have gained a lot of knowledge from research and interviews which have inspired me even more to continue to strive for a career in the field of social work. Through my research I found many things from scholarly journals that interest me. I earned from the â€Å"Reevaluation of social work student’s career† study, conducted by researchers Rubin and Johnson, that most students are committed and devoted to the basics in a career of social work. Most of them also plan to open up their own private practice 5 years after graduation (Butler 45). The purpose of the study was to find out how committed master degree students were to a career in social work (Butler 45). Majority of the students wanted to hold positions in social work that did not involve having clients who were disabled in anyway. Students within a few years after graduation planned to go into private practice with social work (Butler 47). I also discovered from the social work of education journal that the instruction of multicultural content in social work classes causes a discomfort amongst professors, other faculty and students (Social work education 251-253). It is a discomfort especially for minority students that are attending schools of social work (Social work education 254-256). Most try to avoid the multiculturalism content when educating or being educated with the study of social work because most fear that the discussion on that particular topic will be blown out of proportion and will cause a huge disagreement (Social work education 254-256). I learned through interviews with social workers, Mr. Charles Blakely and Reava Lipson that the pay that comes with social workers may not be what I want in salary but it is worth it because it reminds me that I make a difference I other people lives so that they may be as successful as me. Overall I have learned from this entire project that you have to first be passionate about the career you plan to take on and secondly stay focused and devoted. Social work is not just a profession that helps other but it I also a profession that gives social workers the opportunity to help themselves through someone else’s problem. Social work is something like a projector that reveals what really goes on in societies all over the world. Social work is a career that many have chosen and are still choosing. Social work deals the change of individuals and the changes in society. I am determined to make a difference in someone else’s life in the field of social work.

Environmental analysis of Nivea in Thailand

Environmental analysis of Nivea in Thailand In todays world, all businesses are facing the dynamic of world economy. In business world, there is always strong competition in the market with new business players and convergence of the industry. Companies have to adjust themselves in order to survive and to conduct good performances; even the market leader of the industry needs to be successful with improved performance, high profitability and competitive edge. To be successful, a business needs to set its overall direction for the company through business plan aiming to achieve business goals and objectives. One of the most important parts of the overall business plan is the marketing plan. In formulating an effective marketing plan, a company needs to follow segmentation, targeting and positioning (STP) steps as they are the foundation of marketing strategy (Desarbo et al., 2008). STP process is in the area of market-oriented approach, which primarily examines the external environment based on market needs so as to develop products which well respond to the market. Currently, while the overall markets are becoming more mature and customer needs are greatly diverse, the use of STP strategy is indispensable. In highly dynamic environment, most companies conduct segmentation research studying the changes in the marketplace and adapt themselves to the dynamic world. Therefore, it is very common that most businesses are increasingly segmenting markets and identifying each target market in order to explore new opportunities, develop right positioning to establish brand image and brand reputation, deliver proper communications to the target audiences, and also effectively invest resources and specific capabilities to the main marketing activities. The company will be able to create a value proposition specific to the target market by developing an effective marketing strategy, including marketing mix. By going through the STP process, a company will be likely to establish its own identity and differentiate itself from other competitors in the marketplace. This research studies the mens grooming product industry in Thailand. The methodology is to examine how the product owner develops its marketing strategy and how the STP process has vital role in formulating the strategy. In Thailand, mens grooming market is a high growth industry, with approximately 14 percent growth annually from 2005 to 2008 and the market size in 2009 expanded with the value of Bt5.5 billion. Growth of the industry in year 2008 mainly came from growth of mens skin care market, with 26% percent growth in terms of current value (Euromonitor International: Mens Grooming Products Thailand, 2009). Mens skin care market is considered not only an attractive market but also a very highly competitive market in Thailand. This paper uses a case study of NIVEA FOR MEN brand in Thailand, the line of products manufactured by Beiersdorf Thailand, as it is a good case study about mens skincare market. Moreover, it specifically concentrates on male skin care market which is segmentation method of NIVEA FOR MEN. Therefore, this case study is of interest of the author to study the whole process of STP which can lead to the formulating of marketing strategy of a leading brand in mens skin care market, NIVEA FOR MEN. Prior to this study, there have been some researches studying male consumers behaviors which claimed that men consumers are now much more a part of modern consumerism as women (Sturrock et al., 1998). In recent years, a number of researchers aim their interests at male consumers in order to study male consumption of products and styles which contributes to the production of self image (Firat, 1993), and also the construction of self concept (Thompson and Hirschman, 1995). In this paper, the qualitative approach, in-depth interview will be the main research method. The research will provide more details of the area of study and clarify the discussed concepts. 1.2 Purpose of the project Points of the authors interest in this research are the rapid growth of mens grooming product industry and the way a leading brand in this industry has employed marketing strategies. An overall purpose of the project is to study the thorough process of segmentation, targeting, and positioning (STP process) that is the main part in creating effective marketing strategy, and to examine how and to what extent the STP process can be applied to men skin care industry as well as to assess its implementation on a leading brand in men skin care market, NIVEA FOR MEN which is owned by Beiersdorf Company. 1.3 Design of the Project and Objectives This paper mainly deals with the scope of the process of segmentation, targeting, and positioning of a leading brand in men skin care market. As the stated process is the foundation and genesis of marketing strategy formulation, this research covers the linkage among these market-led marketing strategies. The paper will analyze market attractiveness in Thailand, and male consumers needs as well as Beiersdorf Thailand resources and capabilities. The investigation will be done by in-depth interview with marketers in Beiersdorf Thailand in order to gain insight information about the STP process and also the implementation of NIVEA FOR MEN marketing strategies. After all, the theory will be concluded and will also be used as a base of recommendation for the potential growth direction of NIVEA FOR MEN, a market leader in the very high growth industry. The objectives of this research are as follows to trace the origins of marketing strategy concept in real word situation in mens grooming products market and men skin care market in Thailand; to investigate the process of segmentation, targeting, and positioning of NIVEA FOR MEN brand; to examine the linkage among segmentation, targeting, and positioning as well as to study how STP process leads to the formulation of marketing strategy of NIVEA FOR MEN; to study the creation of competitive positioning and marketing plan as a market leader men facial care industry; and to make recommendation in respect of the maintenance of its market leader positioning according to consumers perspectives. 1.4 NIVEA International History and NIVEA Thailand History The case study of Beiersdorf Thailand, NIVEA FOR MEN is used in this research as it is the best case to study about the market-oriented approach with focusing on segmentation, targeting, and positioning process. Moreover, it is of interest of the author as NIVEA FOR MEN, with the various lines of products, is the leading brand in Thai rapid growth industry, mens skin care market. The history of Beiersdorf AG is briefly summarised (See Appendix [4-1]). Both NIVEA international history and NIVEA Thailand history are summerised to illustrate NIVEAs current conditions in world market and in Thailand. 1.4.1 NIVEA International History Figure [1-1]: NIVEA Worldwide Source: www.nivea.com NIVEA is one of the worlds leading international skincare industries, founded in 1911 in Germany by Oskar Troplowitz, who named the company NIVEA, from the Latin word nix or nivis, meaning snow, in reference to the colour of the product. Currently, NIVEA is claimed to be the worlds largest skincare brand with a strong international presence in around 170 countries and an enviable reputation. Also, Beiersdorf has had strong sales worldwide as during 2008 and 2009, Beiersdorfs annual sales in terms of worldwide products sales are at à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ 5,971 million and à ¢Ã¢â‚¬Å¡Ã‚ ¬ 5,748 million, respectively. Beiersdorf had already established an international presence with a large number of products prior to World War II. Trademarks were registered in many countries in order to protect these brands. According to the Beiersdorf website (2010) after World War II, these trademarks were lost in almost all countries, particularly those for NIVEA, and the company tried in each of these countries to recover the trademarks. Beiersdorf began expanding internationally in 1952s. Among the countries involved in the first international expansion were the Netherlands, followed by Argentina, Switzerland and Brazil in 1958. The following overview shows when the rights were recovered in each country. 1961 Sweden 1963 Mexico 1966 Finland/Denmark 1968 African Commonwealth Countries (except South Africa) 1973 U.S.A 1974 France incl. former colonies, now Chad, Mali, Cameroon, The Congo, etc 1977 Hong Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Gibraltar, Cyprus, Malta, Bermuda, Bahamas, Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago 1985 Norway 1992 United Kingdom, Ireland, Canada, South Africa, New Zealand, India, Pakistan, Israel, Australia 1993 Romania 1998 Poland Besides guaranteeing continued high quality on individual products, NIVEA expanded their product range into new cosmetic fields, such as decorative cosmetics and hairstyling and made notable innovations in skincare. Moreover, NIVEA began expanding their product line to provide complete cosmetic care for the whole family and for style-conscious singles. 1.4.2 NIVEA Thailand History In 1984, the NIVEA brand was introduced in Thailand, imported and distributed by Beiersdorf (Thailand) Co., Ltd. The brand was introduced as the first mass market skincare cream and the worlds first true cosmetic moisturizer in the famous blue tin with the white logo. NIVEAs products included NIVEA Crà ¨me, Skin Lotion and Labello Lip Care. According to the Beiersdorf (2010) website, Thai Food and Drug Administration (FDA) chooses the NIVEA factory for shooting Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) Introduction Video. Later, in 1995, NIVEA obtained the GMP certificate from the local FDA Public Health Ministry which was the first GMP certificated to a cosmetic factory in Thailand and NIVEA Research and Development (RD) presented the New Method in Non-Animal Allergy Testing, to the Dean and professors of Pharmaceuticals Science Faculty, Chulalongkorn University. (Nivea website, 2010). By 2008, NIVEA in Thailand was successfully growing and had achieved an excellent 32% market share in the Super Hypermarkets sales channel which is of strategic importance in the Thai market (Nivea website, 2010). Overall, in skin care market, Beiersdorf Thailand is market leader with 11.9 percent market shares in 2008. In this year, Beiersdorf Thailand overtook Unilever Thai Holdings to lead sector sales (Euromonitor International: Skin Care Thailand, 2009) (See Appendix [1-2]). In Thailand, NIVEA achieved market leadership in Mens grooming sectors in year 2008 with 23.4 percent market share, followed by Gillette by Procter Gamble with 14.1 percent market share (Euromonitor International: Mens grooming products Thailand, 2009) (See Appendix [1-3]). NIVEA is also number one in body care sector, with body care brand share 23 percent and 23.5 percent in 2007 and 2008, respectively. (Euromonitor International: Skin Care Thailand, 2009) (See Appendix [1-4]). The NIVEA brand is now available in Thailand in the following products: NIVEA Body NIVEA FOR MEN NIVEA Visage NIVEA Deodorant NIVEA Sun NIVEA Lip Care NIVEA Bath Care

Price Forecasts for Oil

Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o Price Forecasts for Oil Price Forecasts for Oil â€Å"TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING CRISIS ANALYSIS† Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART ONE Michel Godet indicated that qualitative parameters were important in accurate forecasting. Using the available information in the international literature and between 1000 and 1500 words: 1. Mention the qualitative parameters that may be considered in future energy price scenarios. For this purpose take the year 2020 and list, with a brief explanation, the parameters you consider should be included. 2. Which of these parameters can you reasonably quantify? (Attempt to identify at least five parameters) 3. Do you agree with this specific aspect of Godets proposition? Why or why not? 4. Evaluate a crisis impact of the accuracy of technology forecasting. Identify the parameters characterizing the crisis aspects. Accordingly, present your opinion about the validity of the forecasts. 5. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 estimate (using extrapolation techniques) the expected nuclear power time evolution between 1987 and 2007. Comment on the accuracy of your forecasts in relation with the real data. Can you mention any lead time between the major accident of Chernobyl and the reaction of the international electrical power market? PART TWO The OPEC oil price rise in 1973 had an important effect on energy use and energy efficiency, although much of the impact was short-lived. In 2003-4 the oil price effectively doubled, reaching $50/barrel for a period and lately it has reached over $90/barrel. A major player now is Gazprom in Russia News has broken that Gazprom will cut supplies of natural gas to Europe unless it is allowed to raise prices by 200% for export customers, (Customers in Russia historically pay much lower prices). Using the available information in the international literature and between 2000 and 2500 words: 6. Describe your measured response to this, as either an energy Supplier or major energy user. 7. Would you say that your response was based upon â€Å"out of the box† solutions, or a more conservative, incremental approach? 8. Discuss the relative merits and limitations of each of these possible responses, identifying what you believe the two approaches mean. 9. How this crisis shall influence the future of European economies? How could these effects been mitigated? Make your own forecasts. Your answers to 6-8 above are based upon assumed positions within organisations which may employ many people. The next part of this question relates to the impact rising energy prices and, perhaps more importantly, the effect of climate change, may have on your own style of living. 10. At a personal/domestic level, can you foresee a situation in which we may consider that for the benefit of all, we may need to make do with less, in terms of capital goods, travel, and perceived acceptable levels of comfort? Technology Futures Business Strategy 1st Assessment Project PART A-Introduction Based on the Prospective approach and the scenarios method (Godet, 1982), Michel Godet noted the limitations of the classical forecasting concerned with quantification and models (see also Appendix, Table Ap.I). According to Godet, models that only consider quantified parameters do not take into account the development of new relationships and the possible changes in trends. The impossibility of forecasting the future as a function solely of past data is directly related to the omission of qualitative and non-quantifiable parameters such as the wishes and behaviour of relevant actors (Godet, 1982). Furthermore, to structure future scenarios, the variables related to the phenomenon under investigation and the variables configuring its environment should be recognized and analyzed in detail. Besides, the interrelationship among variables, the relative power and fundamental actors, their strategies and available resources as well as the objectives and constraints that must be overcome, should also be taken into account. By granting energy as a commodity under the view of conventional economic theories, markets and price mechanisms are used in order to allocate the respective resources. More specifically, it is the interaction of demand and supply in the markets that allocates resources and largely shapes prices, and it is the broader ecosystem boundaries that these market interactions take place in. Energy pricing, with energy being perceived either as an input or as a potentially polluting source of our ecosystem, clearly stands upon both the sub disciplines of resource and environmental economics (Sweeney, 2004), also depending on the social, political and technological status of the time being and the time to come until 2020. In this context, one may acknowledge a bundle of parameters that may be considered for configuring the respective future energy price scenarios. What is important to note is that similar to the beliefs of Godet, the parameters involved should be studied in terms of interrela tionship, while qualitative and non quantified parameters should be taken into account as well. Question 1 As already mentioned, the configuration of prices within a market -the energy market currently discussed- is largely dependent on the supply and demand balance. This is measured by the respective supply and demand tension expressing the status of a commodity in market terms and providing indications concerning potential energy price changes. While high tensions imply prices imbalance, the opposite is valid for low tension rates. Hence, in order to evaluate future energy prices on the basis of parameters, one should identify the parameters that influence the supply-demand balance in every of the fields previously acknowledged (i.e. social, political, environmental, economical and technological). In this context, in 1.1 the most influential of the parameters configuring energy prices may be encountered. Energy markets are largely influenced by the economic growth factors expressed on the basis of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest and unemployment rates. Given the economic growth along with the parameter of demographics (regarding both the population increase and migrations) one may picture the corresponding trend in energy consumption (i.e. the demand side). Following, policy decisions concerning the determination of fuel mix are determinative as far as energy pricing is considered. For instance, fossil fuels continuing to dominate will stimulate stricter pollution prevention legislation measures (e.g. taxation) and policies for tackling climate change and global warming that will raise energy prices. In parallel, the reinforcement of the respective market holders, potentially leading to strong monopolies, should also be expected. Turning to renewable energy sources may on the one hand -for some of the technologies- imply an adjustment period in order for the corresponding markets to balance and on the other entail significant environmental benefits, in monetary terms as well. Global warming and climate change effects being evident supports the implementation of mitigation measures towards the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this holding a key role in respect of the future. Reserves holding a key role in the future configuration of energy prices not only in terms of scarcity, but also in terms of production costs is directly related with the technological development concerning the exploitation of new deposits and the promotion of substitutes. As already implied, the power of existing markets is another key factor while the efficiency and absorption of energy investments -the investment shares and outcomes of research and development efforts should be underlined- must be also taken into account. The factors concerned with the quality of life suggest an additional parameter that may affect energy consumption patterns and one that cannot be easily captured despite of the indices recommended so far (Allen, 1991). Moreover, as properly put in the Annual Energy Outlook of 2007 (EIA, 2007a), energy markets projections are subject to much uncertainty (unanticipated events). Many of the events that shape energy markets and therefore the price of energy as well cannot be foreseen. These include unexpected weather events and natural disasters (Rezek and Blair, 2008), major innovations and technological breakthroughs (Marbà ¡n and Valdà ©s-Solà ­s, 2007; Varandas, 2008), disruptions and whirls in the political level (Stern, 2006) with analogous societal consequences, the outbreak of a war (Tahmassebi, 1986; Fernandez, 2008) or a nuclear accident, all of them either smouldering or implying blind spots that cannot be directly projected and consequently quantified. Besides, another area of uncertainty is concerned with the fact that even the established trends steady evolution cannot be guaranteed. Summarizing, a brief explanation was presently given on how each of the parameters acknowledged may influence energy pricing. Additionally, an effort was also carried out in order to give a short description of the interrelationship among parameters, this supporting one of Godets arguments. Insisting on the interrelationship of variables, several of the parameters previously encountered should be diffused to every major regional energy market, the latter being largely influenced by the relationship between fuel types and energy sectors (see also 1.2). Eventually, one may result in a rather complex system that encounters the evolution of influential parameters inside the balance between energy types and energy sectors, this revealing the crucial role of energy fuel mix previously discussed. Following, an effort is carried out in order to reasonably quantify some of the parameters acknowledged. Question 2 Given the bundle of parameters that are thought to influence future energy pricing, a certain number of them can be quantified. For instance, the parameters of population, economic growth, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy reserves, and energy fuel mix can be expressed in numerical terms. Demographic growth examines how regional and global demography changes over time. According to the United Nations projections (UN, 2006), world population will increase by over 1 billion people in the years to come until 2020, this suggesting an annual increase rate of 1.1%. While in some areas there is a negative population growth to be considered (e.g. European countries), the opposite may be encountered for some of the Asian countries (e.g. India) where overpopulation is met (see for example 2.1 with EIA forecasts). Besides, the migration of people comprises an additional factor influencing energy patterns via the imposition of unequal population distribution already encountered due to birth and mortality rates. Based on the energy consumption trends ( 2.2), it is expected that energy demand related to all energy products will increase in the years to come, even in such levels that supply may not be able to adequately respond (Asif and Muneer, 2007). In fact, the annual world energy consumption growth is approximately 2% with projections supporting future average rates of 1.1% per annum (EIA, 2007b). In fact, by considering the two of parameters so far examined one may result in the most substantial energy per cap index, clearly establishing the differentiation in energy consumption patterns among world regions (see also question 10). Furthermore, according to the WEO claims (WEC, 2007) that energy generated from fossil fuels will remain the main energy source (expected to cover almost 83% of global energy demand in 2030) and given the 2020 time horizon, much depends on the appearing constraints of world energy reserves, especially those regarding oil and natural gas. While certain studies sound relieving (WCI, 2007), others questioning the extent of increase in the production outputs ring the alarm of forthcoming peaks within the next one or two decades (Bentley, 2002). If the latter is valid, the corresponding demand will not be met, prices will rise, inflation, and international tension will become very likely to occur, and inevitably energy users will have to ration (Wirl, 2008). Overall, what the combination of energy mix with energy reserves provides is the measuring of security of supply, the latter configuring the supply and demand tensions, largely shaping energy prices. Besides, targets set in respect of renewable energy sources further penetration also provide a quantification view; e.g. the EWEA target for 22% coverage of the European electricity consumption by 2030 (EWEA, 2006). Next, expressing economic growth on the basis of gross domestic product (GDP) suggests a constant increase of the former within the range of an average 3% to 4% per year (IMF, 2004), noted during the period from 1970 to 2003. Again, inequity that is to be considered among different world regions is directly related with the previous parameters, illustrating the energy requirements variation. A characteristic example considers China demonstrating an average annual percent change of GDP 2.4% greater than the world average. In 2.3, the respective trends of GDP growth up to the year 2020 may be obtained. Finally, the environmental impact of energy use being expressed on the basis of GHG emissions not only considers the fuel mix and energy consumption but also takes into account the technology used for energy generation. Taking CO2, an increase of 17Gt in a 34 years period, i.e. from 1970 to 2004 (IPCC, 2007), indicates the strong increasing trend, also presented in 2.4. Given also some of the commitments adopted in order to mitigate the greenhouse effect however (e.g. the Kyoto protocol), further quantification, not relying solely on past trends, is possible. The stimulation of additional mitigation measures until 2020 is rather likely, this both imposing the need for shifting to non-fossil fuels and developing cleaner energy generation technologies. Considering the various parameters trends illustrated above, one may sense that the tensions between supply and demand, this comprising the main driver for energy prices, are going to rise. Energy consumption, GDP and population rates on one hand demonstrate the demand side, while declining reserves and mitigation measures describe the opposite supply side. In between, the decisions for future energy fuel mix patterns, although able to completely reverse the energy markets status quo, are not thought to radically vary within the next 10 to 15 years. Hence, unless some major changes occur, the rising tensions between supply and demand imply both instability and increase of prices on a global level with strong differentiation to be encountered among different world regions. As far as the degree of energy price variation is concerned, the implementation of forecasting may both incorporate all of the pre-mentioned parameters and provide various scenarios considering each ones expected fu ture time evolution. Question 3 As previously seen, several parameters were acknowledged in order to form future energy price scenarios. While some of them were possible to quantify, others although not quantified were equally important inputs to keep in mind. Apart from the given inaccuracy of data (either high or low levelled) coupled with unstable models and the pertinacity of explaining the future in terms of the past, Godet emphasizes on the lack of a global and qualitative approach concerned with forecasting (Godet, 1982). Although quantitative methods may prove to be reliable enough and reasonably accurate for short term forecasts, the same is not valid for forecasts concerned with longer periods. The greater the distance from the reference point, the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to provide valid forecasts (see also 3.1). In this context, it is critical to comment on the relativity of time scales noted among the study of various phenomena. Hence, what may seem short termed for one phenomenon studied may actually comprise a long period forecast for another that appears to be rapidly changing over time. Any case given, the chances of significant changes regarding the environment in which the phenomenon under study develops are considerably higher as the time horizon becomes longer and it would be more or less naà ¯ve to solely depend on forecasting methods like the extrapolation of trends. Furthermore, the complexity of phenomena studied and the interdependence among the influencing parameters calls for the inclusion of both quantitative and qualitative parameters with Godet clearly addressing the complementarity between the prospective and classical forecasting (Godet, 1982). It was in fact during the first section of this part that the analysis of energy pricing configuration revealed the importance of interaction between quantitative and qualitative parameters. Energy price could not be disengaged from the parallel evolvement of parameters that even though not easily quantified, do structure the phenomenon environment (e.g. political, technological, economic, social, legal and other aspects). What must be outlined here is that similar to the scaling of decision making (strategic-long term, innovative-medium term, operational-short term), the role of quantitative data is gradually fading out as we tend to conceptualize the entire phenomenon environment. Hence the bro ader the view, again the more obvious is the inability of quantitative data to support a reliable forecasting (see also 2.1). Although in its extreme point of view, Godets proposition perfectly fits the ability of diagnosing forthcoming crises. Already extremely difficult to predict a crisis, omitting parameters such as the wishes of relevant actors and other influential factors that cannot be quantified makes it impossible even to sense it. It is in this context that one should not disregard the importance of other forecasting resources -apart from data- including assumptions, insight and judgment, all of them involving the subjectivity factor. If managing to get over the reef of the NIH syndrome, creativity and broad minded thinking are also essential elements for good forecasting. Question 4 1973 may be granted as the most pivotal year in energy history. The energy crisis defining the period began on October 17, 1973, when the Arab members of OPEC along with Egypt and Syria, all together comprising OAPEC, decided to place an embargo on shipments of crude oil to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt, mainly targeting at the United States and Netherlands. The result of this decision also brought about major oil price increases. Because of the fact that OPEC was the dominant oil distributor at the time, the price increase implied serious impacts on the national economies of the targeted countries, therefore suggesting an international range crisis. Although the embargo was lifted in March 1974, the effects of the energy crisis, mainly in terms of price increase, lingered on throughout the 1970s, with the Iranian crisis aggravating the situation (see also 4.1). Suggesting a crisis that was mainly expressed on the basis of high energy pricing, the outcome of the previous questions concerned with the determination of energy price influential parameters may be illustrated. In fact, the impact of a more or less unanticipated event changed the correlation patterns between supply and demand and imposed the attachment of high tensions in the market balance, the latter entailing the high volatility of oil price and its potential outburst ever since (Regnier, 2007). The market structures, the dominance of OPEC and the political tension, all suggest aspects of the crisis illustrating the importance of considering qualitative parameters as well. As Godet well pointed out, one cannot neglect the wishes and decisions of major actors when configuring the future (e.g. OPEC members). Similar to the 1973 oil crisis, the California energy crisis occurring some 27 years later also revealed the strength of key actors in completely changing what was meant to follow a past trend or ameliorate a past situation. The deregulation of the electricity market in California (during 1998) targeting to decrease the highest of retail prices among the States turned into a complete fiasco that abetted the manipulation of the market by the energy companies. The crisis main characteristics involved very high wholesale prices, interrupted service of customers (rolling blackouts), bankrupt utilities and huge state expenditures, while the crisis main causes were: The lack of new generating capacity inside California (California was heavily dependent on energy imports from nearby states (CEC, 2007a)). The coincidence of a dry year and natural gas spikes with other market oriented factors (California was largely based on hydro and natural gas for the consumers electrification). The market structure allowing generators to manipulate wholesale prices in the power exchange market through escalating power plants outages that caused market disorder (on the other hand there was a retail price cap that did not allow the investor owned utilities to pass the increasing cost of wholesale purchases to consumers). The delay and inability of the regulators to predict the crisis and respond to it (it was only after a certain time that a wholesale cap was set by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and an increase of retail prices was allowed to the investor owned utilities). Emphasizing on the manipulation of the market by the energy generators, in 4.2 one may observe the out of schedule power plant outages rapid increase during the period of the crisis, even exceeding 10GW (approximately 20% of the total installed capacity), responsible for three series of rolling blackouts. No prediction could have captured the 300% and 400% increases of power plants outages. The analogous increase in wholesale prices being the result of the appearing power deficit caused the major suppliers (3 major investor utilities (IOUs)) to be trapped between remarkable wholesale price increases and a fixed retail price (see 4.3). Further, as seen in 4.3, in the early days of deregulation a relatively smooth trend was to be encountered as far as the wholesale market prices are concerned, this also not implying the rapid increase of prices following. Accordingly, although not influenced to the same extent that the IOUs were, the instant impact to the final consumers must also be considered. Note that according to the rough forecast of retail electricity prices -being based on the respective past data- the increase of retail prices was not to be expected either because deregulation promised for a lowering of prices or because the trend applied entailed much lower prices then the ones actually presented at the time (see also 4.4). Similar to this, predictions involving oil pricing before the 1973 crisis and relying on extrapolation techniques (Anon, 1973) expected that world energy consumption would keep up in the increasing rates of 5% up to 2000. If having managed to somehow foresee the 1973 oil price increase, the predictions made would not be exclusively based on the past data trend that would undoubtedly provide a misjudgement of future prices (see also 4.5). What actually followed for the years to come (1980 to 2000) was a 20 years mean annual increase rate of 1.7%. Furthermore, if only having used quantitative data, none could have predicted before the crisis that USA would cut back on oil use. In , 4.6 the response of the USA to the crisis effect reveals the review of energy patterns issued by the government for the times to come. What is also interesting to note in the is the lead time in order to adapt to the new situation encountered (e.g. the natural gas contribution share started increasing 5 year s after the crisis). Another critical point concerning the weaknesses of forecasting previous to crises, not related to the use of numerical past data, may be met in the case of California. Once the regulators and the state adopted a deregulation system that was elsewhere applied successfully (Woo et al., 2003), they decided to proceed in certain modifications (i.e. partial deregulation and imposition of retail price caps) without bothering to consider the different characteristics, features and conditions of operation encountered in the California environment. Hence what might have been thought as successful elsewhere would not be a priori successful in California as well. Finally, if the modification of market structures and potential manipulations had been taken into account via the implementation of alternative scenarios assessing the risk of deregulating the Californian electricity market, certain versatile mechanisms that would instantly respond to a potential crisis may have been put forward. From the analysis provided it becomes clear that forecasting methods that solely rely on past data trends, disregard the wishes of relevant actors and major players, and do not consider the conditions forming the environment where the phenomenon develops cannot capture a broader view of the situation and thus give valid predictions. Question 5 As already addressed, the limited ability of quantitative parameters and extrapolation techniques to provide a valid forecasting, especially in the case where a crisis was to follow, is indisputable. To validate the conclusion made and further support Godets beliefs an example is presently given. Using the installed nuclear power data between 1967 and 1987 along with the application of extrapolation techniques (the forecast function is currently used) one may present the expected nuclear capacity time evolution for the next twenty years. A straightforward comparison of the extrapolation s with the respective real data for the period 1987 to 2007 is available in 5.1. What of course cannot be captured by the extrapolation technique is the Chernobyl crisis, deeply influencing any further development of the nuclear installations. It was on the 26th of April 1986 that reactor number four at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, located in Ukraine exploded. By considering the magnitude of consequences that the Chernobyl accident entailed (UNDP UNICEF, 2002), one may easily realize the cut back of nuclear capacity in the years to come. Furthermore, what is interesting to note is the different influence that the Chernobyl accident had in countries around the world. In 5.2 one may see the immediate response of the Russians, the Germans and the Ukrainians, while it took a little longer for the USA to reconsider its nuclear program. On the contrary, countries like France and Japan continued to install nuclear plants, while on the other hand Italy abandoned its nuclear program and gradually decommissioned all of its plants (NEA, 2007). What is evaluated here, is the conditions configuring the future. Although in a global level, nuclear capacity did stagnate, this was not the case for every country. Depending on each nations needs, requirements and obligations, a different energy policy may be drawn. If not properly weighing these factors in the forecasting process, the outcome cannot be valid. Based on s 5.1 and 5.2, one may also note the lead time of both the international community and the selected countries. Regarding the response of the world as a whole, a period of 3 to 4 years is to be considered for the international community to perform the actions concerned with the decision of cutting back on nuclears. As already noted, a varying response time met in different countries may be partially ascribed to the distance range from the area of the accident. However, a bundle of parameters should be evaluated in order to explain and predict each actors wishes, obligations and decisions. Moreover, when investigating the long term evolution of nuclear power, one should also consider the factor of a rapidly changing environment. Since the Chernobyl accident and the stagnation of nuclear power occurred, any attempt to reestablish previous growth rates has to deal with competitors such as the galloping natural gas market, the return of the coal sector and the maturity of renewable energy technologies (Lovins, 2005). Besides, the considerations regarding waste management, decommissioning expenses and the risk of a new Chernobyl still remain strong. PART B-Introduction Europe becoming increasingly dependent on imported amounts of energy is indisputable. According to the estimations of the recent business as usual scenarios (EC, 2007), it is expected that the energy imports dependency of Europe will increase from the present 50% to a total of 65% by 2030. Within this forecast, reliance on imports of natural gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% while the respective increase for oil imports shall correspond to an additional 11%, i.e. from 82% to 93%. In this context, European countries and Russia hold a strong interdependency bond based on the significant European energy imports of oil and natural gas supplied by Russia. Note that loss of autonomy is always a side effect of an interdependent relationship as the parties are constrained by their need for one another. Gazprom being the largest Russian company and the greatest natural gas exporter in the world (Cedigaz, 2007) constantly raises its share in the European market, with the respective volume of natural gas supplies reaching 161.5 billion cubic meters during 2006 (Gazprom, 2007), equal to approximately 26% of the total European natural gas needs. Being also Russias single natural gas exporter (according to the Federal Law on Natural Gas Exports adopted in July 2006), Gazprom alone utilizes the existing natural gas pipelines in order to supply Europe (see also Appendix, Existing Natural Gas Pipelines). Meanwhile a series of recent and past events mainly suggesting disputes with Ukraine and Belarus (Bruce, 2005; Stern, 2006) have questioned the security of supply towards Europe, this revealing the potential gaming behavior of the Russians, either to satisfy political purposes or simply take advantage of the energy card in terms of increased pricing. Similar to the 1973 energy crisis and the recent oil price major increases, a scenario concerned with the raise of European natural gas supplies price by Gazprom is to be examined. The scenario supports that unless the desire of Gazprom for a 200% increase of natural gas prices is satisfied, supply towards Europe will be stopped. Question 6 Given the threat of a 200% price increase of natural gas heading towards European countries, an effort is presently carried out in order to investigate the measured responses of both an energy supplier and an energy user being involved in the potential crisis occurrence. Because of the particular features attributed to the subject under investigation, several cases of different energy suppliers and users may be examined. A macroscopic approach may consider two major sides, i.e. the European countries and Gazprom (Russia). However, a closer look focusing on country level and considering organizations as well is thought to be essential in order to better evaluate the situation. As already seen in the previous question concerned with the nuclear power evolution, not all countries responded in the same way to the Chernobyl crisis (NEA, 2007). Working on a country level, energy users will derive from the main Gazprom customers in both Western-Central Europe and the Commonwealth of Indepen dent States (CIS)-Baltic countries (see also Table 6.I). On the other hand, the major energy supplier shall refer to either Gazprom or another natural gas supplier. The alternative of considering different energy sources suppliers will be also outlined. Furthermore, both conservative and more extreme solutions responding to the problem will be considered. Table 6.I: Key s o